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Friday, October 28, 2016

For Louisville women's's win or stay home -- THURSDAY CARDINAL COUPLE


The classic Beatles song "With A Little Help From My Friends" could apply to the Louisville women's soccer team tonight as they face Virginia at 7 p.m. in Lynn Stadium. The Kickin' Cards are on the outside, looking in at the eight-team ACC point back from NC State, who is in eighth with 10 points and tied with Virginia Tech at nine points. 

You could even use the Beatles lyrics "Help! I need somebody." in this case.

The scenario is simple. A Louisville win and losses or ties by both the Wolfpack and Hokies puts the Cards in the Oct. 30th ACC Tournament first round.

Not being one who is good at probability statistics...I don't know the odds of these three separate events coming to fruition...but they're probably pretty high. 

Defeating the Cavs is the first step. It will not be easy. UVA is 12-3-2 overall and
5-2-2 in the ACC. They're also #7 in the nation, according to both the Top Drawer and NCAA Coaches polls. In fifth place in the rankings in the ACC with 17 points. Louisville hasn't defeated a top 25 team this season. 

If the Cards (2-4-3, 7-6-4) get by the Cavs, they'll need Wake Forest (2-7-0, 10-7-0) to win or tie at Virginia Tech (2-4-3, 10-5-3) and Pitt (1-8-0, 2-14-1) to win or tie at NC State (3-5-1, 9-7-1). OK, enough with the numbers, right? 

Other remote scenarios...which would create tie-breaker scenarios would be the Cards getting a tie and NC State losing, Cards getting a tie and NC State losing and Virginia Tech getting a tie. 

OK, maybe the scenario isn't all that simple. 

But, to keep the season going, to best control their fate...the Cards would be best served with a win and a couple of upsets. 

The Cards were picked 10th in the league in the preseason ACC polls. They'll end up in 10th. if they lose tonight. They are guaranteed at least a .500 season this year, no matter what happens tonight. If they get into the ACC Tournament, they'd find...most likely duke waiting for them in the first game...but possibly Florida State, Clemson or Notre Dame...depending on how action goes tonight. Louisville did tie Duke during the regular season. Thank goodness there are no ties in conference tournament play.

It is a Cardinal team that has depended on a lot of youth this year and gotten some great results from frosh and sophs. They graduate only five players...four of them transfers into the program and just one starter in goalkeep Taylor Bucklin. 

I've heard it said by more than one ACC Network Extra announcer (who isn't affiliated with Louisville) that the Cards look like they could be a serious ACC title contender in 2-3 years.

I believe it. 



  1. so, Paulie, there are 27 different scenario possibilities depending on whether Louisville, NC State and Virginia Tech win, lose or tie. out of those, seven are conditions where Louisville would have a shot at making the tournament.

    1) Louisville wins. Va.Tech and NC St. lose
    2) Louisville wins. Va. Tech loses and NC State ties
    3) Louisville wins. Va Tech wins and NC State loses (tiebreaker)
    4) Louisville wins. Va Tech wins and NC State ties (tiebreaker)
    5) Louisville wins. Va Tech and NC State tie.
    6) Louisville ties. Va Tech and NC State lose (tiebreaker)
    7) Louisville ties. Va Tech ties and NC State loses (tiebreaker)

    7 chances out of 27 scenarios is a 25.9% success probability rate. Depending on how the league decides tie-breakers, that lowers to a 11.1% guaranteed success rate. The one constant here is if NC State wins, none of the scenarios are in play for the Cards (or Va. Tech)

    I figured my statistics class (lack of) learning at JCC would come into play someday!

    Blue Lou

    1. LOL. Nice shooting, Tex! Gonna be an interesting one, for sure.


  2. Happy birthday, Coach, Jeff Walz.


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