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Thursday, April 29, 2010

SONJA'S DERBY PICKS


Will Churchill Downs fan favorite Calvin Borel go back to back with Derby winners? He's on SUPER SAVER...who has won at Churchill and also won a sloppy track.

Let's face it, if all this wet weather comes in Saturday like the weathermen are predicting, it's going to be an absolute mess on Derby Day at the Downs. So, I'm going with a few "mudders" and scaling down what I'm normally invest in the race.

SUPER SAVER, DEVIL MAY CARE, DISCREETLY MINE, and BACKTALK have all won races on a off track. NOBLE'S PROMISE has the highest rating for wet track probability of winning. I'm going to use all five in an exacta box. After last year's MINE THAT BIRD upset...I don't think people will rush to make any of the twenty runners a overwhelming favorite, but I do expect LOOKIN AT LUCKY to be around 3-1. That'll make a nice win, place and show wager....just in case the mudders fail. I'm also going with NOBLE'S PROMISE across the board also. One more exacta box with LOOKIN AT LUCKY, NOBLE'S PROMISE, SUPER SAVER, DUBLIN and DEVIL MAY CARE and that will take care of the majority of my handicapping wagering. $52 total if you do a $1 exacta box and $2 across on the above selections.

Longshots? Yeah, I will give you a couple that could surprise at a price. JACKSON BEND has spent the last two races chasing ESKENDEREYA across the wire in second place. Since the "E" is scratched...veteran jockey Mike Smith could score with JACKSON BEND. Worth an across the board wager at least. ESKENDEREYA, in my humble opinion, would have beat this Derby field by at least 6 lengths, if he could have gone...

STATELY VICTOR won at huge odds at Keenland in his last outing. He's also run second on a wet track. Alan Garcia returns for the ride and could pay nicely if he shows the stretch kick that he did in the Bluegrass.

So, I'll be prepared to give $64 to the teller for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby. To recap:

$1 exacta box on SUPER SAVER, DEVIL MAY CARE, DISCREETLY MINE, BACKTALK and NOBLE'S PROMISE ($20)
$1 exacta box on LOOKIN AT LUCKY, SUPER SAVER, NOBLE'S PROMISE, DUBLIN and DEVIL MAY CARE ($20)
$2 across the board on LOOKIN AT LUCKY ($6)
$2 across the board on NOBLE'S PROMISE ($6)
$2 across the board on JACKSON BEND ($6)
$2 across the board on STATELY VICTOR ($6)

Good luck, enjoy the fastest 2 minutes in sports...stay dry if you are headed out there and remember...SONJA'S SELECTIONS are for entertainment purposes only. You know the drill...HAPPY DERBY TO ALL!

(I should probably have let Paul do the picks this year...he's been slaying them out there since the track opened last week...but his Derby picks are a more closely guarded secret than the Bush Beans recipie or The Colonel's chicken seasoning)

We'll return to women's sports on Friday...thank you for your kind indulgence...we tend to go a little crazy here in Louisville during Derby week. Lacrosse, softball and much more await our women athletes in the next couple of days and we'll tell you all about it.

Now, where did I set that Mint Julep I had?

Written by Sonja
4/29/10

2 comments:

  1. Well........ so that didn't work out. At least it was a strategy that made sense. Let's try again next year!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yeah, Calvin I had...Ice Box I didn't.

    "It's the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance. And it's high time you joined in the dance."

    -the late, great Dan Fogelberg

    Sonja

    ReplyDelete

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