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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Ky Oaks draw and predictions


We don't normally offer two posts in the same day, but I wanted to get my Kentucky Oaks predictions up here since they've done the post position draw and the race will be run Friday. (Note: SONJA'S SELECTIONS are for entertainment purposes only and changes might occur if there are scratches or she gets late breaking news on one or more of the runners)

It looks like BLIND LUCK will be the post time favorite and got a very good starting gate draw, coming out of the 6 slot. The Jerry Hollendorfer filly will have Rafael Bejarano on board and her closing kick will be greatly aided in the long Churchill Downs homestretch. Do I think she is unbeatable? No, but that might be the way to wager if she goes off at 6-5 or higher. Doubling your money isn't such a bad thing, after all. I may plunk a few on her to win and place, but we'll see how the day is going financially Friday before I decide on that.

I will do a few exactas and trifectas, just in case she fails. Two horses I am very high on are TIDAL POOL and CRISP. CRISP gets Cailfornia leading rider Joel Rosario on her back and no one knows the horse better. She beat BLIND LUCK back on March 6th in the Santa Anita Oaks and hasn't run since. Her trainer, John Sadler, also trains ZENYATTA (who won't be at Churchill but is the best filly in the world) and Sadler knows how to get them ready. He saddled ZARDANA to a win over RACHEL ALEXANDRA in the Fair Grounds Oaks. If I get 6-1 or better on this one...it could be a side bet.

Also in my exacta will be TIDAL POOL and BEAUTICIAN. TIDAL POOL is D. Wayne Lukas and Calvin Borel. Borel at Churchill Downs, a very lethal combination. TIDAL POOL ran second to BLIND LUCK last time out but trainer Lukas had reservations about how the horse took to the track that day and TIDAL POOL is working very well at Churchill. BEAUTICIAN beat BLIND LUCK last fall in the Breeder's Cup juvenile fillies and throw out the 8th place finish in the Ashland Stakes at Keenland for BEAUTICIAN, the horse didn't like the polytrack. Alex Solis gets the mount.

We'll box TIDAL POOL, CRISP, BEAUTICIAN, BLIND LUCK and AMEN HALLELUJAH for a dollar. Total cost: $20. We'll also do an $1 exacta wheel/box with BLIND LUCK and these other four. Total cost: $8. I include AMEN HALLELUJAH because of rider Julian Leparoux and the the fact she ran second to Derby bound filly DEVIL MAY CARE in the Bonnie Miss.

In the trifecta, I'll do a wheel that has BLIND LUCK on top and those four underneaath. $16 for a $1 wager. I also may consider a $1 tri box with BLIND LUCK, CRISP, BEAUTICIAN and TIDAL POOL. $24 for that one.

$68 total to offer the racing Gods. Let's hope for a nice return on investment. Paul is just betting Borel on TIDAL POOL. He's got a man crush on Calvin...

As always, Sonja's picks are for entertainment purposes only. Be prepared to lose, nothing is a sure bet or guarantee at the race track except the delicious burgoo and corned beef sandwiches at Keeneland and the vegetable soup over at Wagner's Pharmacy near Churchill. Don't try to bet and win every race and don't bet over your head.

We'll look at the Derby Thursday.

Written by Sonja
4/28/10

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