Battle of the Bluegrass, NCAA Tourney Edition -- SATURDAY CARDINAL COUPLE

Louisville Hosts Kentucky at Lynn

Louisville women's soccer returns to the NCAA Tournament today after a strong regular season that saw them go undefeated at home and make the ACC Tournament. The Cards will put that home record to the test today as they earned a high enough NCAA seed to host the first round. The Cards were granted a six seed, ranking them somewhere between 24th and 27th. I mean... sure. I guess the NCAA selection committee pays about as much attention to RPI as the coaches who vote in the coaches poll. 

The Cards already know who their next opponent would be and where the match would be played. UofL/UK is the only match in the quadrant yet to be played. If the Cards win this afternoon, they'll head to Durham to face Kansas while Duke plays UCF. Louisville is one of nine ACC teams to make the field. They are one of only two who has not yet played their first round game, with the other being Notre Dame, who is a one seed. All seven ACC teams who have played (FSU, Stanford, Wake Forest, UNC, Clemson, Virginia, and Duke) have already advanced. The only upset amongst those teams was UNC, who came in without a seeding and knocked off 3-seed Tennessee 3-1. 

Back to Louisville's matchup. The Cards drew Kentucky, who, as Jared mentioned in his Tuesday article, they have not played since 2019. Coincidentally, that was the same year in which they last made the NCAA tournament. The Cards won that season, so hopefully it is a good omen. The Cats went 11-4-3 in the regular season with a 5-2-3 SEC record. They advanced to eh SEC tournament, where they beat Florida 1-0 in the opening round and fell to Georgia in the quarterfinals on penalty kicks. This loss to Georgia gave them a weird quirk in their schedule page, as the site saw it as a 1-1 draw (before penalties) and said their final record was 12-4-4 rather than 12-5-3. Nevertheless, it was a decent end to the season, as Georgia earned an eight seed.

Perhaps UK and Georgia were very well matched. The Bulldogs fell in the opening round 2-0 to Ohio State. Ohio State was one of UK's non-conference losses this season, with the Cats also losing 2-0. UK's other non-conference loss was also against a Big Ten opponent, as they lost to Illinois 2-1. Both of those games were played in Lexington. UK also lost to Vandy in Lexington (2-1) and their other conference loss was to Georgia (1-0) on the road. They picked up three ranked wins on the season, all at home, as they knocked off #20 Oklahoma (2-1), #25 Alabama (2-1), and #8 South Carolina (3-2). All three of those teams fell off from their rankings a bit. Oklahoma failed to make the tournament, South Carolina ended up unseeded (lost to Wake 2-1), and Alabama is an 8-seed (advanced over Northwestern in PKs). 

Kentucky has had a decent offense this season, scoring 42 goals on the year, and they've only allowed 16. Louisville, as a reminder, scored 51 and allowed 12. The Cats put 128 of 307 shots on target for a target rate of 41.7% and a goal percentage of 13.7%. Their conversion rate on shots on target was 32.8%. Louisville put 144 of 305 shots on frame. That gave them a target rate of 47.2%, a goal percentage of 16.7%, and they converted 35.4% of shots on target. To be fair, Louisville's offensive production fell off quite a bit in ACC play, but the ACC is an extremely strong conference, and the Cards defense still held up very nicely. Louisville's opponents took just 148 shots and only 55 were on target. 

Louisville will need to score against UK, as the Cats were only shut out twice all season. They were also rather stingy, with opponents scoring multiple goals in only four games. That said, UK was 1-1-3 on the road this season. Louisville will have to take advantage of playing in the comfort of their own stadium. 

Today's match gets underway at 2PM. Admission is paid, as it is an NCAA event, but it should be a great day so come down to Lynn to support the Cards. If you can't make it out, the game will be available on ESPN+ (no ACCNX since it is NCAA). 

NO CCRHP This Week

Apologies for the late scratch last week. We'll be out again this week due to the various midday Louisville events today. 

Until next time, Go Cards!

Case