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Monday, March 24, 2025

Cards Fall in Round of 32 -- MONDAY CARDINAL COUPLE

Curry's Career High Not Enough in 85-70 Loss


Jayda Curry did her best to will the Cards to a victory over TCU in the second round of the NCAA tournament, scoring a career high 41 points, but Louisville wasn't able to recover from a nightmare run by the Horned Frogs in the second quarter. In the end, Louisville outscored TCU by six in the second half, but a 21-point halftime deficit was too much to overcome. TCU advanced to their first Sweet Sixteen in program history (men's and women's), while Louisville missed out on its chance for a 13th under Jeff Walz. 

Curry scored the first basket of the game, which was an auspicious start to her day. She would go on to score 15 of Louisville's 17 first quarter points, which was incredible, while also becoming incredibly alarming as the game wore on. Louisville held TCU at bay for much of the first quarter, and a Curry three with 4:34 to go in the quarter gave Louisville its largest lead of the game at 13-7. TCU answered with a three of their own (far from the last) and hit another after a Louisville layup to make it 15-13. The Cards responded with another basket with 2:57 remaining in the first to go up 17-13, but then the wheels fell off. TCU went on a 7-0 run to close the quarter up 20-17. 

The quarter break didn't help Louisville at all. They continued to be unable to score, not making a basket in the second quarter until there was only 4:10 remaining in the quarter. That's almost a full quarter's worth of scoreless basketball. In that time, TCU had scored ten points to stretch their lead to 30-19. Louisville's shooting woes continued, while TCU kept taking shots on a kiddie goal. When all was said and done, the second quarter was a 27-9 bloodbath, TCU was on a 34-9 extended run, and it looked like it might all be over but the crying. 

This was a matchup long awaited by those that created the packages about Hailey Van Lith taking on her former school and coach, and the former Louisville guard didn't disappoint. Van Lith played all 40 minutes and finished with a double-double, totaling 16 points and 10 assists. She was a big part of that second quarter. While she only scored four points in the quarter, she tallied four of her assists (for 11 points), three of her five rebounds, and her only steal and block each in the second. When Louisville was on the mat, HVL and TCU didn't let up. 

If the first quarter was bad for Louisville from a defensive perspective, the second was a disaster. TCU went 8-13 in the first, with a 4-6 effort from beyond the arc. In the second, they improved, shooting 11-14 overall and 5-7 from three. The Horned Frogs were shooting 70.4% overall and 69.2% from deep. As the Cards watched them run away, they managed to find the bottom of the net on just 9 of 35 shots, going 2-7 from three. That's 25.7%. With a -44.7% disadvantage in shooting, almost no other stats matter. 

Jeff Walz must have lit a fire under Louisville at half time, or at least stirred some embers, because the Cards didn't fold coming out of the locker room. Olivia Cochran scored the first points of the half on a couple of free throws, and Louisville cut the lead to 15 with 7:28 to go. Unfortunately, the third quarter was a lot of "Louisville might get some momentum... oh never mind." The Cards were unable to claw back much closer, and the lead stretched back to 20 on two occasions. Even when Imari Berry hit threes on back-to-back possessions, TCU was able to respond with an and-1 on a layup to halt any progress. With 31 seconds remaining in the third quarter, Louisville's luck in the game was summarized pretty well by the final sequence. Berry drew a foul and responded by missing a pair of free throws. On the ensuing possession, Curry forced the ball away from Van Lith, again giving the Cards a chance at the last shot. Louisville worked the ball around to find an open Elif Istanbulluoglu, who missed a three as time ran out. 

Trailing by 18 entering the fourth, things weren't looking good. The Cards opened with a quick score by Elif, though, and TCU missed a three on their first possession. A Cochran three probably isn't what I'd recommend to get back into the game, and it missed, but Louisville weathered another offensive possession by forcing a miss from HVL. Curry was fouled on a three attempt and hit all three free throws to make it a 13-point game with 8:37 remaining. Another miss meant Louisville finding Berry for a three would have made it a 10-point game, but the shot was off the mark, as was the follow-up layup (not for lack of help by some contact, but the game was pretty loosely called). 

A couple of TCU free throws pushed the lead back to 15, but Curry dropped in a three to make it 12. Right on cue, the momentum killer came on a free layup and a Louisville miss. Another turnover meant that the Cards weren't out just yet, and a nice jumper by Cochran kept it at 12. A missed three fell to Curry, who brought it up court, kept it herself, and fired up a wild three that managed to hit almost all of the rim and the backboard before falling in. Louisville was down by just nine points with 5:26 to go. Consider by eyebrows raised. 

It wasn't meant to be, though. The Cards weren't able to keep up the pressure or go on a sustained run, and they never got closer than eight points with 2:47 remaining. TCU pushed it back to a 15-point deficit in the end, even without Louisville playing the foul game. Curry continued to do everything in her power to get Louisville across the finish line but she needed help. She got some from Cochran and Berry, who scored 15 and 8, respectively, but if you do the math on that, you're going to be disappointed. Allow me to help. 41+15+8=64 from three players. Louisville scored 70 total. Curry made 13 of Louisville's 24 baskets. She was 6-12 from 3 and Berry was 2-4. Louisville attempted 8 others and made none. The Cards got six points out of 113 player minutes. If you take Curry's 13-28 away, Louisville went 11-43 (25.6%) from the floor. The offense just wasn't there.

The FRED Report

Free Throws: The Cards had a good day at the line, making the most of their chances by going 14-16 from the stripe. Curry was her typical 9-9, but Cochran added a surprising 5-5. The super senior gave it a good run in her final game for Louisville, adding six rebounds, one assist, and three steals to her 15 points without turning the ball over. That was a bit beside the point, though. 87.5% is a capital 'F'.

Rebounds: There isn't a much more stark indication of Louisville's shooting woes (and TCU's hot hand) than the rebounding stats. The Cards and Frogs tied with 31 rebounds apiece. Louisville had 15 offensive boards. TCU had 29 defensive. That's right - 44 of the 62 rebounds came at Louisville's end of the floor. Woof. TCU scored on both of its offensive rebounds. Louisville managed fewer second-chance points than they had offensive rebounds. TCU was a decent rebounding team, averaging a margin of +7.8 this season. I'll go lowercase 'r' but I'm reluctant about it. 

Effort/Execution: I was ready to throw in the towel at the half, but I'll go ahead and tell you I'm awarding a capital 'E'. I know Louisville lost by 15, but they never gave up. Maybe there was a stretch in the second where they looked a little defeated, but they could have lost this game by 40 and they chose to fight back, cutting it to single digits. They also only had seven turnovers. Their problem was that they couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. Sometimes that's the way it goes. 

Defense: This one is a bit of an enigma. The Cards forced 14 turnovers, six from HVL, and they had a good strategy to keep her off balance. They came away with 10 steals and picked up a block. They only gave up nine fast break points. All that said, they gave up 85 points overall on 63% shooting. TCU was better than 50% in every quarter. Their worst shooting quarter was the third, where they went just 4-8, but they made up for it by going 13-15 from the line in that period. Louisville was a bit late on help defense, and they overcommitted on traps on a few occasions. It is what it is. No letter.

That's a final score of F-r-E-_. A bit of a surprising score, given the way the game turned out, but stats don't always tell the story. We'll have plenty more to say on this team, but for now, let's be proud of the fact that the Cards made it to the NCAA tournament, despite some shakiness during the season, and they managed to get back into the second round. It was a tough loss to end the season, but we got a pair of pretty nice swan songs from Cochran and Curry, who I feel like I couldn't have given enough words to in this column. 

Walz showed that he could win games with the transfer portal last season, but he showed he still knew how to run a program this year. The Cards are set up for the future with the players set to return, so we'll see what there is to come. Louisville won't be dancing any more this season, but you can be sure that there are plenty of tournament wins yet to come for the program. 

Until next time, Go Cards!
Case

2 comments:

  1. Go Cards had a great run with all the freshmen - it looks like we'll be set up for a long time if everyone stays, so the future is bright! We just need to develop our post players. Shout out to Jayda Curry and all the upperclassmen for helping to develop the freshmen this year. 🔥🔥

    ReplyDelete
  2. ??? Why is NCState or UNC able to recruit that much better in the post? It has been a long time we have someone in the post where I feel we have the match-up advantage in big games with elite competition.

    ReplyDelete

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