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Saturday, March 8, 2025

Cards Fall Flat in ACC Quarters -- SATURDAY CARDINAL COUPLE

Offense Struggles in 61-48 Loss to Duke


Louisville women's basketball played its second consecutive game without Jayda Curry and Merissah Russell last night and let's hope it's the last time they have to do that this season. After surviving in overtime against Clemson on Thursday, Louisville's offense looked lost against a suffocating defense, leading to the worst scoring half of the season when they headed to the locker room with just 18 points. Louisville tried to make a game of it late, but their momentum was halted and they'll now await their fate on Selection Sunday. 

The Cards' shooting woes started early, as they managed just 5-16 from the floor in the first quarter, a mark of 31.3%. Duke shot 50% from the floor in the first, but they turned the ball over a handful of times and Louisville was able to stay close. The Cards trailed just 15-11 at the end of one, and it looked like they might be able to keep the game in hand. Unfortunately, Louisville couldn't make it out of the quarter without Nyla Harris, Ja'Leah Williams, and Olivia Cochran all picking up their first fouls. Even more concerningly, Taj Roberts started the game just 1-6 from the floor. With Curry out, Roberts is Louisville's leading scorer, so the team will go as she does without Curry.

Louisville's hopes of keeping the game close fell apart in the second quarter, as their shooting woes continued. The Cards were 3-10 from the floor in the second, and while Taj Roberts hit her second three of the game, Duke stretched their lead from 4 to 13 at the break. Duke opened the second with a three, and Louisville made their first basket of the quarter with a Mackenly Randolph jumper but failed to score for the next six and a half minutes. Fortunately for the Cards, Duke went on a long scoring drought as well. Unfortunately for the Cards, Duke's ended with a scoring run, rather than a single basket. The Blue Devils finished the quarter on an 11-5 run. Louisville had six turnovers in the quarter. They trailed 31-18 at halftime. 

If you're doing the math on the final score, you know how the second half went, but it started with a third quarter that looked as though Louisville might lose the game by 30. Louisville remained largely unable to score, mustering their first basket over two minutes into the half and sitting on 20 points for four minutes after that. Isla Juffermans made 1-2 free throws to go to the under 5 timeout, pushing Louisville to 21 points with just 14 minutes left in the game. Duke went to the line with 3:31 remaining to extend their lead to its peak at 22 points. At that point, Louisville's offense finally found a bit of rhythm. Louisville closed the third quarter on a 9-2 run to move into the final stanza down by 15 with some momentum. While it isn't great to be optimistic about a 15-point deficit, it was, as I mentioned, threatening to be much worse.

The Cards continued their comeback bid to open the fourth quarter, scoring the first seven points of the fourth to cut the lead to eight at 45-37 and force a Kara Lawson timeout with 8:18 remaining. Briefly, it looked like game on... and then it didn't. Louisville had a chance to cut the lead to six, but a missed jumper in the paint and a missed put-back (both of which had decent shouts for fouls, in my opinion), gave the ball back to Duke, who got a layup and drew the foul to complete the three-point play. A five-point swing meant that instead of 39-47 it was 37-48. After that point, Louisville struggled avoid turnovers, and Duke started to make threes, quelling any further comeback efforts. The Cards didn't see a single-digit deficit for the remainder of the game. A desperate attempt to play the foul game late pushed the lead back to it's final mark at 13 and the Cards' run in the ACC Tournament ended with a 61-48 loss. 

For the second game in a row, Ja'Leah Williams struggled to stay out of foul trouble when she was depended on to be the floor general. After fouling out of the Clemson game, Williams picked up only two fouls in the first half against Duke but got a quick one in the third and was called for her fourth foul just four minutes into the third quarter. Williams was able to avoid fouling out, but she was off the floor for key minutes, and Louisville's offensive fate was in the hands of true freshmen in a hostile environment and a tournament setting. It didn't go great. Roberts, Izela Arenas, and Imari Berry combined for nine of Louisville's 21 turnovers. While a couple of Williams' fouls were suspect (one was whistled while she had both hands on the ball for a jump ball attempt), she will need to find a way to avoid ticky-tack situations if she is going to be depended on to run the floor. 

Despite Louisville's struggles, Mackenly Randolph somewhat quietly had her best game of the season. Randolph played 34 minutes and scored a personal-best (and tied for game-high) 13 points. She was 5-7 from the floor, including 1-1 from three, and made both her free throw attempts (each of which were and-ones). She did commit two fouls and two turnovers, but she had a pair of rebounds and another pair of assists (a lot of twos in the box score). Randolph has shown flashes so far this season, and last night's game (Robert's woeful shooting aside) was another indicator that this could be a very strong core group of players moving forward. 

We have given Olivia Cochran some flak this season, but she played hard in last night's loss. She was only 4-10 from the floor, but she made all three of her free throw attempts and finished with a double-double (11 points, 11 rebounds). She only had two fouls and her three turnovers were unfortunate, but not game-breaking. As Louisville's spiritual leader, her efforts in helping prevent the blowout were considerable, and I hope for a celebratory end to her illustrious UofL career in the NCAA tournament. 

The FRED Report

F-Free Throws: Louisville didn't take their first free throw until well into the third quarter, but they managed to do well at the line, despite the season averages of those that took the shots. The Cards finished 9-11 from the line, just under 82%. I can never quite remember the difference between a capital f and a lowercase f, but I'm crediting Cochran, Randolph, and Juffermans for their 7-8 performance. Capital 'F'.

Fred Sanford (Redd Foxx) models my facial 
expression for much of last night's game.
R-Rebounds: Louisville didn't get run off the boards, despite how it felt at times last night. Each team had 34 total rebounds, and Louisville had 17 each of offensive/defensive rebounds compared to Duke's 16-18. Louisville lost the second-chance points battle, but not by much (12-8). Duke outrebounds opponents by 6.7 per game on average, compared to just 3.3 for the Cards, so I'm going to award a capital 'R'. Again, I'm rewarding an individual effort here, as Cochran was the only player with double-digit rebounds. 

E-Effort/Execution: Ok, here is where my generosity runs a bit thin. Louisville shot just 32% from the floor, which isn't solely down to Duke's defense. They also had 21 turnovers, 11 of which were Duke steals. The Cards had only 9 assists on their 18 made baskets, and had multiple scoring droughts over five minutes. I'd like to reward the fact that they never gave up, but it's hard to ignore their worst offensive output in a single half (18) and their second worst scoring performance of the season. In retrospect, it's kind of crazy that they scored more than 18 in both halves when they managed just 42 points against NC State. No letter. 

D-Defense: Hmm. This one is a bit of a stumper. The Cards forced 18 turnovers, but just three of those were steals. A couple were turnovers in which they gave the ball right back. They were a bit slow on closeouts, and while Duke was just 41.5% from the floor overall, they were 6-18 from three. Louisville gave up 24 points in the paint, 13 fast break points, and it could have been worse if Duke hadn't shot 58% from the free throw line. I don't think Louisville's defense kept them in the game in the second half so much as Duke couldn't quite run away with it. No letter. 

In a weird game like last night's, it's hard to expect much more than the weird final score of F-R-_-_.


Louisville's fate is now in the hands of the committee. With conference tournaments going largely as expected, the Cards' resume won't be dramatically improved or harmed by outcomes across the country, so we just wait and see. After last night, Louisville's NET ranking remains in the mid-30s (35) and Charlie Creme still has them as a 7-seed in the Spokane region. NET rankings and bracketology will go out the window in eight days, but they're all we have for now. 

2025 Cardinal Couple ACC Pick'Em Update

Despite a couple of potential upsets, the day was largely chalky yesterday. After dropping his perfect bracket in the first quarterfinal matchup, Nick O saw his lead slip away in the last QF of the night. Five entries now sit on 9 points (Nick O, Curtis, Karen J, Kenny S, and Case) with three (Thomas, Jeff, and Daryl) close behind at 8. 

Nick O and Karen J will each drop another game having both picked FSU over NC State today, but they join the other six entries with Notre Dame as their champion. Paulie and Blue Lou (both with 7) will be rooting for Duke upset, which would upend the standings. Paulie needs Duke to win the championship for it to come down to tiebreakers, while Blue Lou could win outright with NC State over Duke in the final. 

Softball Soars in ACC Opening 9-2 Win


Louisville very nearly walked off Notre Dame in the sixth inning, but the Irish got one more attempt in the seventh. Sam Booe, who took the win from Alyssa Zabala, closed it out, though, and Louisville opened their ACC season with a big win over a middling Notre Dame squad. The Cards will get the Irish twice more this weekend, including a 1:00 PM matchup today. 

Louisville and Notre Dame each had ten hits in this one, but the Cards were able to do more damage with runners in scoring position, as Louisville pitching and defense stranded 11 on base for the Irish. The Cards left just five on base. Coach Holly Aprile manipulated the lineup slightly again, with Bri Despines batting fifth in this one and Madison Pickens taking the cleanup spot. Pickens made good use of it, sending her first career home-run to right field in the first inning to score Chelsea Mack and give the Cards a 2-0 lead. Pickens had a two-run single in the sixth inning to set up the potential walk-off, giving her four RBI in the game. 

Joining Pickens with two hits in the game were Easton Lotus, Chelsea Mack, and Taylor Monroe, with Lotus and Mack also each scoring two runs. Lotus had a timely RBI triple in the fifth, kicking off a four-run inning after Notre Dame trimmed the lead to 3-2 in the fourth. Louisville's offense, unsurprisingly, wreaked havoc on the base paths, as they had infield singles, a forced error (for runs), and finished with seven steals (two for Mack). A small-ball delight on a team that also has some pop. Can't be mad about it. 

Alyssa Zabala had a bit of trouble in the cool evening weather, but she was serviceable and in line for the victory. Zabala pitched 3.2 innings and gave up seven hits, three walks, and two runs (both earned) while striking out a pair. Sam Booe came on to relieve her in the fourth with the tying run on base. Since Zabala was on the hook for the potential game-tying run upon her departure, the win ultimately went to Booe, who is now 4-1. Booe had another great outing in the circle, as she gave up just three hits and one walk in 3.1 innings and struck out five. She also did well to keep the ball out of danger as just two of her batted balls in play were in the air. All three hits were short outfield singles and she gave up just two fly ball outs. 

Louisville's win moves them to 15-6 and pushes Notre Dame below .500 at 10-11. I would expect Brooke Gray to get the start this afternoon, but Booe and Zabala are both capable on short rest if Gray struggles. The Cards took down the Notre Dame ace yesterday, giving Micaela Kastor just her second loss of the young season. If Louisville's offense can continue to build confidence, especially among the freshmen, this could be a fun year. 


Cardinal Couple Radio Hour Podcast


We'll have four (with a potential showing from the fifth) in the booth today to recap the past week. There has been some bad, but a lot of good, so we'll do our best not to dwell on the negatives as we advance the mission of bringing you the joy and excitement of UofL women's athletics. You can check out the live stream of the show by going to the Cardinal Couple YouTube page and clicking on the live video. Jeff usually creates that about an hour before the show, which officially starts at 11 AM Eastern. If the live time doesn't work for you, there are plenty of playback options, so be sure to check out whichever is best for you!

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Until next time, Go Cards!

Case

1 comment:

  1. The Freshman got another crash course on the job training going against a tough ACC defense.I think Duke is the best defensive team in the ACC, so the freshman really got tested. Shout out to MacKenly Randolph 🔥🏀keep grinding.

    ReplyDelete

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