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Saturday, May 4, 2013

Saturday Kentucky Derby -- Happy 139th!



SATURDAY CARDINAL COUPLE

- Derby Selections.

- Oaks recap 


Happy 139th. running of the Kentucky Derby to you! The fastest two minutes in sports is upon us. A well-matched field will take to the Churchill Downs main track for a mile and a quarter at (or around) 6:24 p.m. today. Here's what we have...remember these are for entertainment purposes only and always gamble responsibly...we have six races for you to look at.

"Until you go to Kentucky and see the Derby with your own eyes...you ain't never been nowhere and you ain't never seen nothing."  -Irwin S.Cobb



Race 6 -- The Twin Spires Turf Sprint


Paul


Based on Churchill and wet turf numbers, I'm going with #3 Regally Ready here with Corey Nakatani as my top pick. I expect a big run out of long-shot #1 Southern Dude and Icon Ike also.

Sonja

#8 Icon Ike and Rosie Napravnik will be flying late and should be able to pass this field to get the win. Veteran #6 Chamberlain Bridge loves Churchill's turf course and could get the top prize also. #2 Havelock will come running late with Garrett Gomez and should be considered also.

Race 7 -- The Humana Distaff

Paul

#8 Byrama returns to dirt today and just barely missed on the polystuff at Keeneland. Joel Rosario gets him to the wire first today. #7 Burban has finished either first or second in four starts at Churchill. #1 Jamaican Smoke tries to go wire-to-wire and just misses.

Sonja

I think Rosie will have a big day today and #3 Same Cross surprises this field at a price. #2 Rumor has tons of class and Mike Smith on board again. #1 Jamaican Smoke could outrun them all.


Race 8 -- Churchill Distaff Turf Mile


Paul

# 8 Marketing Mix was the favorite in this race last year and ran a disappointing fourth. With Garrett Gomez on board this year he does better an wins it. #6 Stephanie's Kitten loves Churchill and comes off the layoff in fine fashion. #7 Karlovy Vary will be there until they catch him.

Sonja

#5 Hungry Island won this race last year and will again this year. #3 Daisy Devine has been either first or second the last six times out and will be close today. #6 Stephanie's Kitten won The Edgewood here last year and has a chance.


Race 9 -- The Churchill Downs


Paul


#8 Trinniberg is on fire on American tracks and ran in the Kentucky Derby here last year. He gets to see the winner's circle this year#9 Delauney has won five straight and can't be ignored. #2 Hierro won the Derby Trial here last year in the slop and rates a look if it's messy today.

Sonja

#9 Delauney and Rosie will win against this very talented field. #8 Trinniberg will make it close and I'm taking longshot # 3 Laurie's Rocket as one that could surprise them all.


Race 10 -- The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic


Paul

If my day goes like yesterday did, I'll be ready for plenty of Woodford to ease the pain by the time this one rolls around. #8 Wise Dan and #9 Point of Entry should be the top two...Dan barely winning. #4 Silver Max follows them home.


Sonja

I can't disagree with Paul's top two here. I'll select them both along with #3 Optimizer ( I love this battler) with Joel Rosario aboard.


Race 11 -- The Kentucky Derby


Paul


I've loved him since I first saw him at Gulfstream and # 14 Verrazano is my top pick to get the roses. #16 Orb will be flying late and make a race out of it. #12 Itsmyluckyday fades to third and #3 Revolutionary rounds out the superfecta.

Sonja

It's a long stretch at Churchill and #5 Normandy Invasion will love it and pass them all to win. #16 Orb will make it tough on him but lose at the wire. #8 Goldencents takes third for the O'Neill/Pitino/Krigger crew and #14 Verrazano finishes fourth.


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Oaks Recap


Sonja strikes again, with a big day of handicapping success. If you had put $2 across the board on her top three selections in the six races we outlined yesterday, it would have cost you $108. You would have received $130 back...a $22 profit. She did even better with exotics. A $2 exacta and $2 trifecta on her top three choices cost $72. Her picks returned $251...+$179 for the day.

Paul hit only one exacta and trifecta for the day, but it returned a total of $119..so it covered the $72 wagered. The big money came later...I "loaded up" on Beholder across the board and she ran second by a gut-wrenching half a length in the Oaks.  On a $2 across the board wager, she paid $9.00 and $5.60...so that was a profit. I did it a lot heavier than $2 across... I also scored big on the final race of the day. Paul McGee's Sky Girl won convincingly at 5/2 and I had the exacta and trifecta here also.  I needed that late luck...Tommy Boy and I tried various Pick 3's and Pick 4's and cashed nary a one...

Happy Derby!

-Paulie

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