ACC Bracketology -- TUESDAY CARDINAL COUPLE

Louisville Ranked 24th Post-ACC Play

With most of the power conference tournaments complete (the Big 12 Championship is tonight), the field is starting to take shape for the 2024 NCAA Women's Tournament. Josh Heird is among those who will set the seeding and they get a free pass on the number one overall seed. South Carolina survived upset bids in the SEC Tournament to remain undefeated and received every number 1 vote in the AP poll. They're at the top of the field in the NET rankings as well. Second in the AP is Iowa, who won the B1G Tournament and sits at 29-4. It would be fairly surprising to see them not end up with a one seed, but they are only 5th in the NET. 

We're here to talk about the ACC's teams, though. Notre Dame took the automatic qualifier at stake in Sunday's game and they moved up from 14th to 9th as a result of their efforts in the tournament. The NET rates them a bit higher, as they didn't change from 7th in that ranking system. ESPN's latest bracketology gives the Irish a three-seed, but I don't see it. Ohio State is ranked lower in the NET, is only two spots higher in the AP poll, and didn't win their conference title. 

Speaking of teams a bit out of place... USC is ranked third in the AP, but is just 10th in the NET. The Trojans won the last WBB Pac-12 Tournament, so they'll be expecting a 1-seed. That could potentially put two Pac-12 teams on the top line, as Stanford is unlikely to get bumped. The conference champs would certainly feel snubbed, but a one-seed would be two spots higher than their NET ranking suggests, so we'll see. For what it's worth, bracketology gives them the honor.

Back to the ACC. Bracketology says the ACC will once again lead the league in bids, putting nine in the field. What's more, Miami is listed as a "Last Four Byes" team, so all nine teams are projected to make the tournament outright. Miami is 50th in the NET rankings, so it would be heartbreaking on their end if they were ultimately left out. That said, 22 automatic qualifiers will be ranked lower than 50th in the NET. If Princeton is upset in the Ivy League Championship, that could put a 23rd team above Miami (and Princeton at 33 might still get in). On the bubble, Miami can't afford a stolen bid, so I'd say they're Tigers fans this week. A 10-seed is probably about right for the Canes, who will likely be on pins and needles throughout the show. 

Given those high numbers on automatic qualifiers, I'd say that Virginia and Georgia Tech need not hold their breaths. The Hokies are 61st in the NET and the Yellow Jackets are 69th. If you finish only a shade above .500, you aren't likely to sniff the tournament anyway, so I'd say they know they aren't getting in. Who knows, though, maybe we'll be shocked. 

Now that we know the first and last teams in for the ACC, who is left? If I gave you three guesses to get the last seven schools, I feel pretty confident you could get it. If you guessed "the other seven top-9 seeds in the ACC Tourney," come on down and collect your prize. Behind Notre Dame, the ACC sees NC State (13), Virginia Tech (19), Duke (20), Louisville (23), UNC (37), Syracuse (43), and FSU (44). Ironically, Syracuse and FSU swapped spots in the NET Rankings despite the Noles winning the head-to-head on Friday. I guess going on to lose by 26 the next day kind of hurt. The NET and the AP are not very well aligned when it comes to the ACC, as the voters have NCST (11), VT (13), Syracuse (22), Louisville (24), FSU (RV-34), Duke (RV-35), and UNC not receiving votes. Miami is also not receiving votes, but Miami is 13 spots behind UNC in the NET, so that's not terribly shocking. 

So what does that mean for seeding? We've already mentioned the headache that the committee will have with some top-line teams looking a bit like fool's gold, but what does that mean for the lower-ranked teams? Let's assume Princeton gets in. That means the bottom 22 teams in the field are going to be those automatic qualifiers rated below 50 in the NET. That leaves 46 slots for the rest of the field. Already, quick math tells us that Miami is squarely on the bubble. It also means, according to the NET, Syracuse and FSU aren't super safe. (Have no fear, Orange fans, a ranked team is not getting left out of the tournament.)

Bracketology agrees that, roughly speaking, an at-large bid into this year's tournament will get you an 11- or 12-seed at worst. Like I said, Miami pulled a 10. The ESPN honks are high on the ACC, though, rating higher than the NET (which is unsurprising in the case of a team like Syracuse). Virginia Tech and Notre Dame will both be irritated to see a "3" next to NC State's name. ND will shout that they should have a higher seed line (and they probably should), and Virginia tech won't like being behind (as they're projected to have a 4). Syracuse picks up a 5-seed before Louisville and Duke both sit on the 6-line. 

Yeah... a six-seed is not what we've become accustomed to here in the River City, but Louisville won't be playing in the Yum! Center this year, which will be the second year in a row. They're projected to hit the road and head to Corvallis to take on Oregon State. If that comes to pass, the Beavers will be looking for payback after the 17-point drubbing the Cards handed out in the 2019 tournament. The teams have played three times, all since 2012, and that 61-44 victory is actually the smallest margin for the Cards. Louisville won the first matchup by an eerily similar 61-43 mark and took the game in between by a whopping 33 points (76-43). Oregon State would likely be looking to score more than 50 points at home. 

So Louisville and Duke as six-seeds aren't too surprising. The Blue Devils would have a shout at a five-seed, but Syracuse's premium bumped them down a line. UNC is a bit of a head-scratcher. Bracketology has the Tar Heels with a seven-seed. I'm not really sure where that math is coming from. The Heels haven't exactly passed the eye test at times this season, and the NET and AP would both see them fairly well below that mark. They're ahead of where the AQs would be boosting their seeding, so a 9- or 10-seed would seem more likely, but I guess we'll find out next week. Last, but not least, is FSU. The Noles are one of the teams aided by the lower ranked automatic qualifiers, and Bracketology puts them as an 8-seed. They will potentially draw Iowa in Iowa City. Good luck with all that. 

Based on the way the field is laid out now (I'd be a little surprised if it actually shook out this way), no ACC teams could play before the Sweet 16. Those honors would come as the result of moderate upsets for Louisville and UNC or a moderate upset for Duke and a major one for Miami. There are three teams in two quadrants, two in a third, and NC State gets to be alone in their quadrant. We'll see about that.

We're just a week (and a day) away from the First Four getting underway, and we'll know who plays in those games after the Selection Show on St. Patrick's Day. The women's Selection Sunday show will air at 8PM on ESPN. We'll have more on the Pick 'Em Challenge in the coming days, but starting planning those upsets now!

Until next time, Go Cards!

Case