FIGHT FOR TOP FOUR SPOTS ROLLS INTO THE STRETCH
Winning the conference regular season is a primary goal...of course...but finishing in the top four of the standings gets you a double bye in the tournament seeding and you get to watch the action until Friday, March 6th.
Notre Dame sits atop the standings as of Wednesday, Feb. 11th. with a 23-2 regular season record and 10-1 in conference. Florida State is 9-1 and could move into a tie with the Irish if they can handle UNC in Raleigh on Thursday. The Irish are off until Monday...when they defend the Joyce Center against Duke.
Duke sits third in the standings at 9-2 and Louisville is in the 4th spot at 8-2. The Cards will stay a 1/2 game behind if both win Thursday. Louisville goes to Clemson and Duke visits Charlottesville to face Virginia.Finishing ninth or better in the conference regular season play gets you a single bye...where #8 and #9 matchup on Thursday and #5 through #7 face the winners of the first day of action involving the #10-#15 regular season teams.
So far...Syracuse holds fifth at 7-4. Close behind are Miami and North Carolina at 6-4. Pitt and Virginia, both 5-5 would fill out the eighth and ninth spots if the tournament started today.
The Tekkies would have to be our choice for most underachieving expectations team so far this year.
So...what will it take for the Cards to remain in the desirable top four in the conference? Obviously..win, baby, win...but we think 12-4 will get Louisville a double bye.
The Cards have (at) Clemson, North Carolina, (at) Virginia Tech, (at) Notre Dame, Boston College and (at) Virginia remaining on the schedule. Louisville would need to go 4-2 the rest of the way out.
We'll predict that Clemson, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Boston College will land in the "W" column for the Cards. North Carolina could go either way. Notre Dame (at South Bend) could be an "L" for Walz's bunch.
We'll predict that the Cards finish this stretch 5-1 and end up 13-3 in conference. We see Notre Dame and UNC as possible losses. North Carolina looms as a 'pick'em game...but since it is in the KFC YUM! Center...where Louisville is undefeated in ACC play...we're thinking the Cards beat the TarHeels this Sunday.
Other stats of note are...
Scoring offense. Notre Dame is first with 84.7 ppg. The Cards are third at 76.6. (Please note these are stats before Sunday's action was played.)
Scoring defense. Miami leads the way with 56.4...closely followed by Florida State and Louisville at 57.1.
Home attendance. The Cards have regained the top home attendance spot, averaging 8892 a game. The 13656 that attended the Pitt game are not included here. Notre Dame is bringing in 8843 and far back in third is Duke with 4560. It's hard to believe that the conference season is over 60% done.
It's pleasantly surprising to see Louisville at 20-3 and 8-2 in the ACC. Tough tests remain, though...and the Cards can't afford to look past anyone, no matter what their record is or where they're currently sitting in the conference standings. One of Jeff Walz's axioms is:
"The next game is the most important one."
Wise words.
March Madness is only four weeks away...beginning with the gauntlet to run through in Greensboro and culminating with the Cards quest to put their stamp on Tampa.
paulie
I'm obviously biased, but I can't understand why the lower bowl is not filled for every home game. Why can't we average 10,000-11,000? Women's BB remains the best entertainment value in town. Ten dollars for a lower bowl seat...less than that if you're a Senior or Youth.
ReplyDeleteWe were in Fort Myers, FL last month and went to a Florida Gulf Coast women's game. The team is really good - tops in the Atlantic Sun. They have a really nice 4500 seat arena, but it's way out in the suburbs and individual game tickets are $22 each! They draw 3000 or so for most women's games. That would be equivalent to 7000 or so at $8-$10 per ticket.
Wow...$22 seems steep for WBB. Are you sure they didn't take advantage of a few "out-of-towners" ? LOL...
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised that UofL WBB isn't at that 10,000 plateau also...but no UConn or Tennessee on the home schedule (always big draws) and playing Notre Dame in South Bend have skewed the numbers downward.
I was pleasantly surprised by the announced 13,000+ for Pitt. UNC will probably top that (Sunday, big matchup) Then it's BC and the home schedule is done.
Even at almost 9000 (where Louisville is currently) our home attendance is in the top 1% in WBB and something the players (and recruits) are quite aware of and pleased by. Nothing worse than playing in front of 500. (Unless it's 400)
PAulie
Can't argue with your conclusions as far a league play goes. It's going to end up being a great season. I'm really looking forward to the UNC game. If we do what we can do there's a W waiting for us on that one.
ReplyDeleteAttendance should be huge for UNC and with BC being our final home game / Senior Day / Native American Day we should blow the doors off any other home game attendance this year. Shonie will be at the BC game to be with the family on Jude's senior walk up. I'm betting we go over 20K again.
Good write up, Paulie.
ReplyDeleteI see Louisville going 4-2 in that stretch. Losses to UNC and Notre Dame. I do think 12-4 will secure Louisville a top 4 spot in the ACC Tournament.
I think you are a little over confident with regard to the last away game at Virginia. The game at the Yum Center did not get to double digits until the last four minutes. It was a tough home win, and Virginia has lost only once at home in league play. They have a couple of tough ones coming up, but it is going to be tough to go there for the last game and get a win. That may be tougher than beating UNC at home. But no one knows for sure. That is why they play the games. Gary
ReplyDeleteVirginia's conference home wins at home against Wake, BC and NC State don't exactly overwhelm me. None of the three are over .500 in league play. Losing to underachiever Ga. Tech at home raises eyebrows. But, as we have seen...anything can happen on any given night. We'll know more about the Wahoos after Duke visits tonight and FSU stops by Sunday.
DeletePaulie